Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 0–2 Poland U19

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Poland U19

S. Michalski 88'

M. Kowalczyk 40'

9/21/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1927%

×Draw25%

Poland U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19Expected goals in this matchPoland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.63

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.14

Poland U19

1.63

Poland U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.10

creates per match

1.36

1.90

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.10

Poland U19

1.36

allows per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.90

Poland U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19+0.00on par

Poland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 ↓

Poland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 or draw

51%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 or Poland U19

75%

Draw or Poland U19

73%

Winning margin

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 wins by 2+

10%

Poland U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 1+ goals

68%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2+ goals

32%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 3+ goals

11%

Poland U19 1+ goals

80%

Poland U19 2+ goals

48%

Poland U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Poland U19 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 attack 1.10 + Poland U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Poland U19 attack 1.36 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 scores more

27%

level

25%

Poland U19 scores more

49%

Poland U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

H. Alisah

22'

T. Guercio

27'

D. Mijatović← E. Mulalić

40'

M. Kowalczyk

46'

N. Kočević← Z. Plavčić

46'

S. Pramenković← S. Šušić

46'

M. Brzozowski← T. Guercio

64'

S. Mucha← G. Chmiel

64'

W. Matyjewicz← M. Matysik

66'

K. Urbanski

70'

M. Kowalczyk

73'

M. Oyedele← A. Kozubal

75'

A. Prskalo← A. Krdžalić

83'

J. Kolan← M. Kowalczyk

84'

N. Kovač← H. Ališah

86'

D. Mijatovic

88'

S. Michalski

90+5'

S. Pramenkovic

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Poland

1

Zych

4

▼

Matysik

6

⚽

Michalski

17

▼

7

3

10

8

▼

Kozubal

9

▼

Chmiel

21

Pieńko

15

⚽

▼

Kowalczyk

1

Pršlja

2

Smajić

3

▼

Šušić

20

▼

Mulalić

5

Peštić

10

▼

Krdžalić

6

▼

Ališah

17

▼

9

11

7

Manager: M. Ivanković

27'▲D. Mijatović←▼E. Mulalić

46'▲N. Kočević←▼Z. Plavčić

46'▲S. Pramenković←▼S. Šušić

75'▲A. Prskalo←▼A. Krdžalić

84'▲N. Kovač←▼H. Ališah

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 substitutes

13Mijatović8Kočević14Pramenković16Prskalo18Kovač15Mešanović4Prusina19Bogdanić12Vojvodić

Manager: M. Brosz

46'▲M. Brzozowski←▼T. Guercio

64'▲S. Mucha←▼G. Chmiel

64'▲W. Matyjewicz←▼M. Matysik

73'▲M. Oyedele←▼A. Kozubal

83'▲J. Kolan←▼M. Kowalczyk

Poland U19 substitutes

23Brzozowski18Mucha16Matyjewicz14Oyedele2Kolan11Antczak20Duda19Kurowski22Abramowicz