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Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 vs Luxembourg U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Luxembourg U19
Luxembourg U19
11/18/2023UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Stade de la Frontière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1938%
×Draw24%
Luxembourg U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
1.52
Luxembourg U19
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 16 away

creates per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
1.10
Luxembourg U19
1.13

allows per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
1.90
Luxembourg U19
1.94

finishing

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19+0.00on par
Luxembourg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 ↓

Luxembourg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 or draw
62%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 or Luxembourg U19
76%
Draw or Luxembourg U19
62%

Winning margin

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 wins by 2+
18%
Luxembourg U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 1+ goals
78%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2+ goals
45%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 3+ goals
20%
Luxembourg U19 1+ goals
78%
Luxembourg U19 2+ goals
44%
Luxembourg U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Luxembourg U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Luxembourg U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 attack 1.10 + Luxembourg U19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.52

Luxembourg U19 attack 1.13 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 scores more
38%
level
24%
Luxembourg U19 scores more
38%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 1–0 Luxembourg U19

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 beat Luxembourg U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Frontière in Esch-sur-Alzette.