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Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 vs Georgia U19 — Friendlies 2026

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Georgia U19
Georgia U19
A. Gojak 70'
B. Dimitric 46'
N. Elisashvili 26' (pen)
10/10/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1934%
×Draw25%
Georgia U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
1.33
Georgia U19
1.46

Georgia U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
1.00
Georgia U19
1.67

allows per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
1.25
Georgia U19
1.67

finishing

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19+0.00on par
Georgia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 ↓

Georgia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 or draw
60%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 or Georgia U19
75%
Draw or Georgia U19
66%

Winning margin

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 wins by 2+
15%
Georgia U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 1+ goals
74%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2+ goals
38%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 3+ goals
15%
Georgia U19 1+ goals
77%
Georgia U19 2+ goals
43%
Georgia U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Georgia U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Georgia U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 attack 1.00 + Georgia U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Georgia U19 attack 1.67 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 scores more
34%
level
25%
Georgia U19 scores more
40%

Georgia U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Georgia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
N. ElisashviliPenalty
46'
B. Dimitric
70'
A. Gojak
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Georgia
D. Orlović
Manager: D. Orlović
L. Pirtskhalaishvili
Manager: L. Pirtskhalaishvili

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2 – 1 Georgia U19

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 beat Georgia U19 2-1 in Friendlies on October 10, 2025.

Goals: N. Elisashvili (26' pen), B. Dimitric (46'), A. Gojak (70').