Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 1–2 France U19

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

France U19

F. Čuić 54'

F. Nzouango-Bikien 85'

L. Cissé 83'

3/29/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Stade Omnisports André Darrigade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1926%

×Draw23%

France U1951%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19Expected goals in this matchFrance U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.82

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.22

France U19

1.82

France U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

1.10

creates per match

1.75

1.90

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.10

France U19

1.75

allows per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.90

France U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19+0.00on par

France U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 ↓

France U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 or draw

49%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 or France U19

77%

Draw or France U19

74%

Winning margin

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 wins by 2+

10%

France U19 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 1+ goals

70%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2+ goals

34%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 3+ goals

12%

France U19 1+ goals

84%

France U19 2+ goals

54%

France U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 (draw refunded)

33%

France U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

France U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 attack 1.10 + France U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

France U19 attack 1.75 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 scores more

26%

level

23%

France U19 scores more

51%

France U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "France U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

T. Muharemovic

46'

A. Virginius← L. Tchaouna

46'

M. Abline← E. Michut

52'

E. Mehmedović← A. Bristrić

52'

F. Čuić← T. Muharemović

54'

F. Čuić

58'

L. Gourna-Douath← M. Adeline

59'

L. Cissé← W. Bondo

69'

E. Kulašin← M. Šakota

83'

L. Cissé

85'

F. Nzouango-Bikien

87'

T. Ramić← M. Buljubašić

87'

A. Ba← M. Cho

88'

S. Toure

90+1'

A. Ba

90+2'

T. Lo-Tutala

Bosnia-Herzegovina

France

1

Lo-Tutala

13

⚽

19

5

3

20

▼

Adeline

18

▼

Michut

8

▼

Bondo

15

Diouf

10

▼

Tchaouna

12

▼

Cho

1

Šahinović

17

Cvjetinov

13

▼

Muharemov

4

Smajic

2

Jušić

8

▼

16

19

9

15

▼

Šakota

18

▼

Bristrić

Manager: I. Barbarić

52'▲E. Mehmedović←▼A. Bristrić

52'▲F. Čuić←▼T. Muharemović

69'▲E. Kulašin←▼M. Šakota

87'▲T. Ramić←▼M. Buljubašić

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 substitutes

10Mehmedović11Čuić14Kulašin20Ramić7Krdžalić3Musić5Prusina12Damjanović6Šukilović

Manager: L. Chauvin

46'▲A. Virginius←▼L. Tchaouna

46'▲M. Abline←▼E. Michut

58'▲L. Gourna-Douath←▼M. Adeline

59'▲L. Cissé←▼W. Bondo

87'▲A. Ba←▼M. Cho

France U19 substitutes

7Virginius9Abline6Gourna-Douath11Cissé17Ba2Hadjam4Camara16Ngapandouetnbu