Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2–0 Bulgaria U19

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bulgaria U19

F. Čuić 69' (pen), 35'

11/10/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Stadion Albena-1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1931%

×Draw26%

Bulgaria U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19Expected goals in this matchBulgaria U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.45

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.20

Bulgaria U19

1.45

Bulgaria U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.10

creates per match

1.00

1.90

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.10

Bulgaria U19

1.00

allows per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.90

Bulgaria U19

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19+0.00on par

Bulgaria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 ↓

Bulgaria U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 or draw

57%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 or Bulgaria U19

74%

Draw or Bulgaria U19

69%

Winning margin

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 wins by 2+

13%

Bulgaria U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 1+ goals

70%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2+ goals

34%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 3+ goals

12%

Bulgaria U19 1+ goals

77%

Bulgaria U19 2+ goals

42%

Bulgaria U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Bulgaria U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Bulgaria U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 attack 1.10 + Bulgaria U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Bulgaria U19 attack 1.00 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 scores more

31%

level

26%

Bulgaria U19 scores more

43%

Bulgaria U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bulgaria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

F. Čuić

46'

P. Sučić← I. Grgić

46'

P. Paskov← M. Marinov

46'

P. Tsonchev← S. Dyulgerov

46'

S. Stoichkov← Y. Bornosuzov

57'

M. Trako← M. Šukilović

69'

E. Kulašin← E. Mehmedović

69'

F. ČuićPenalty

70'

A. Bristrić← M. Šakota

70'

A. Pemperski← M. Stoychev

76'

S. Dobrev← M. Sorakov

81'

M. Buljubašić← F. Čuić

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Bulgaria

9

▼

1

6

3

15

11

▼

Marinov

2

Boev

8

▼

Dyulgerov

10

Iliev

7

▼

Sorakov

17

▼

Stoychev

1

Šahinović

6

▼

Šukilović

17

Cvjetinov

2

Jusić

8

▼

Grgić

10

▼

16

7

9

11

⚽2

▼

Čuić

15

▼

Šakota

Manager: I. Barbarić

46'▲P. Sučić←▼I. Grgić

57'▲M. Trako←▼M. Šukilović

69'▲E. Kulašin←▼E. Mehmedović

70'▲A. Bristrić←▼M. Šakota

81'▲M. Buljubašić←▼F. Čuić

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 substitutes

19Sučić5Trako14Kulašin18Bristrić13Buljubašić3Račić12Damjanović4Vrankić20Ramić

Manager: A. Stoykov

46'▲P. Paskov←▼M. Marinov

46'▲P. Tsonchev←▼S. Dyulgerov

46'▲S. Stoichkov←▼Y. Bornosuzov

70'▲A. Pemperski←▼M. Stoychev

76'▲S. Dobrev←▼M. Sorakov

Bulgaria U19 substitutes

5Paskov21Tsonchev18Stoichkov13Pemperski16Dobrev19Petrov12Slavkov14Nikolov22Trenchev

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2–0 Bulgaria U19

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 beat Bulgaria U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 10, 2021.

Goals: F. Čuić (35', 69' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Albena-1 in Albena.

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 vs Bulgaria U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2–0 Bulgaria U19