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Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 vs Turkey U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Turkey U17
Turkey U17
11/11/2025UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1751%
×Draw21%
Turkey U1728%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
2.20
Turkey U17
1.59

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

creates per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
2.56
Turkey U17
1.75

allows per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
1.44
Turkey U17
1.83

finishing

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17+0.00on par
Turkey U17+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 ↓

Turkey U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 or draw
72%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 or Turkey U17
79%
Draw or Turkey U17
49%

Winning margin

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 wins by 2+
31%
Turkey U17 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 1+ goals
89%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 2+ goals
64%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 3+ goals
37%
Turkey U17 1+ goals
80%
Turkey U17 2+ goals
47%
Turkey U17 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 (draw refunded)
65%
Turkey U17 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Turkey U17 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 attack 2.56 + Turkey U17 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.20

Turkey U17 attack 1.75 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 scores more
51%
level
21%
Turkey U17 scores more
28%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 1–3 Turkey U17

Turkey U17 beat Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 3-1 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on November 11, 2025.