Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 2–0 Liechtenstein U17

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Liechtenstein U17

S. Marčetić 16', 8'

10/24/2022

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Nogometni kamp Reprezentacije BiH

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1792%

×Draw6%

Liechtenstein U172%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17Expected goals in this matchLiechtenstein U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.38

0.72

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17

4.38

Liechtenstein U17

0.72

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 creates 508% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

2.56

creates per match

0.00

1.44

allows per match

6.21

creates per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17

2.56

Liechtenstein U17

0.00

allows per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17

1.44

Liechtenstein U17

6.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17+0.00on par

Liechtenstein U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 ↓

Liechtenstein U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (11%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 or draw

98%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 or Liechtenstein U17

94%

Draw or Liechtenstein U17

8%

Winning margin

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 wins by 2+

80%

Liechtenstein U17 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 1+ goals

99%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 2+ goals

92%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 3+ goals

78%

Liechtenstein U17 1+ goals

51%

Liechtenstein U17 2+ goals

16%

Liechtenstein U17 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 (draw refunded)

97%

Liechtenstein U17 (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Liechtenstein U17 away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 attack 2.56 + Liechtenstein U17 defence 6.21 → ÷2 → 4.38

Liechtenstein U17 attack 0.00 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 scores more

92%

level

6%

Liechtenstein U17 scores more

2%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

S. Marčetić

16'

S. Marčetić

53'

E. Dugic

56'

D. Petrović← E. Dugić

61'

A. Popović← M. Brekalo

61'

D. Avdić← K. Alajbegović

67'

M. Ritter← A. Wolf

79'

A. Rizvič← D. Šabić

79'

Z. Zeničanin← S. Marčetić

81'

M. Hoop← J. Cocetrone

81'

N. Marxer← M. Schulz

89'

N. Nigg← M. Beck

90'

Z. Zenicanin

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Liechtenstein

12

Schädler

5

Oberwadit

4

▼

Beck

7

Keller

13

▼

2

6

15

9

▼

Cocetrone

8

▼

11

6

1

17

4

3

▼

Šabić

2

Terzić

5

Čelik

8

▼

Dugić

11

▼

Alajbegov

18

⚽2

▼

Marčetić

7

▼

Brekalo

Manager: N. Jusufbegović

56'▲D. Petrović←▼E. Dugić

61'▲A. Popović←▼M. Brekalo

61'▲D. Avdić←▼K. Alajbegović

79'▲A. Rizvič←▼D. Šabić

79'▲Z. Zeničanin←▼S. Marčetić

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 substitutes

16Petrović9Popović19Avdić10Rizvič20Zeničanin12Duškaj15Šilić13Popović14Garčević

Manager: M. Koller

67'▲M. Ritter←▼A. Wolf

81'▲M. Hoop←▼J. Cocetrone

81'▲N. Marxer←▼M. Schulz

89'▲N. Nigg←▼M. Beck

Liechtenstein U17 substitutes

14Ritter19Hoop10Marxer20Nigg3Gritsch18Verling1Beck17Giorgetta16Rizanaj