Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 1–1 Israel U17

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Israel U17

S. Spahić 38'

S. Farhi 66' (pen)

3/22/2023

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Stadion na Banovom brdu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1743%

×Draw23%

Israel U1734%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17Expected goals in this matchIsrael U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.50

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17

1.71

Israel U17

1.50

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

2.56

creates per match

1.57

1.44

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17

2.56

Israel U17

1.57

allows per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17

1.44

Israel U17

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17+0.00on par

Israel U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 ↓

Israel U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 or draw

66%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 or Israel U17

77%

Draw or Israel U17

57%

Winning margin

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 wins by 2+

22%

Israel U17 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 1+ goals

82%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 2+ goals

51%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 3+ goals

24%

Israel U17 1+ goals

78%

Israel U17 2+ goals

44%

Israel U17 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 (draw refunded)

56%

Israel U17 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Israel U17 away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 attack 2.56 + Israel U17 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.71

Israel U17 attack 1.57 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 scores more

43%

level

23%

Israel U17 scores more

34%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

E. Ehud

34'

F. Taraba

38'

S. Spahić

46'

Y. Ranon← Y. Blai

56'

K. Alajbegović← S. Spahić

58'

A. Popovic

66'

S. FarhiPenalty

67'

S. Popović← S. Marčetić

67'

V. Garčević← M. Brekalo

67'

L. Liam← I. Ehud-Zaira

80'

A. Beganovic

80'

E. Khlaili← S. Farhi

82'

A. Jahic

83'

I. Khalaili

83'

A. Waheb

88'

L. Asras← I. Oli

90+3'

H. Sadžak← A. Popović

90+3'

R. Šilić← F. Taraba

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Israel

1

3

2

4

16

▼

Ehud-Zair

10

Hazan

8

▼

Oli

7

Zoabi

11

▼

Blai

9

⚽

▼

Farhi

5

Waheb

1

Mehić

4

▼

3

2

5

9

▼

Popović

10

⚽

▼

Spahić

6

Beganović

19

Jahić

18

▼

Marčetić

7

▼

Brekalo

Manager: A. Raščić

56'▲K. Alajbegović←▼S. Spahić

67'▲S. Popović←▼S. Marčetić

67'▲V. Garčević←▼M. Brekalo

90+3'▲H. Sadžak←▼A. Popović

90+3'▲R. Šilić←▼F. Taraba

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 substitutes

11Alajbegović14Popović13Garčević17Sadžak15Šilić12Duškaj20Vlaisavljević16Jogunović8Stojčić

Manager: G. Brumer

46'▲Y. Ranon←▼Y. Blai

67'▲L. Liam←▼I. Ehud-Zaira

80'▲E. Khlaili←▼S. Farhi

88'▲L. Asras←▼I. Oli

Israel U17 substitutes

19Ranon6Liam13Khlaili20Asras18Cohen12Oz14Banay15Malma17Kfir