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Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 vs Belgium U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Belgium U17
Belgium U17
3/29/2022UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Stadion Etno Selo Stanisići

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1742%
×Draw22%
Belgium U1736%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
1.83
Belgium U17
1.67

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
2.56
Belgium U17
1.90

allows per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
1.44
Belgium U17
1.10

finishing

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17+0.00on par
Belgium U17+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 ↓

Belgium U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 or draw
64%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 or Belgium U17
78%
Draw or Belgium U17
58%

Winning margin

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 wins by 2+
22%
Belgium U17 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 1+ goals
84%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 2+ goals
54%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 3+ goals
28%
Belgium U17 1+ goals
81%
Belgium U17 2+ goals
50%
Belgium U17 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 (draw refunded)
54%
Belgium U17 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Belgium U17 away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 attack 2.56 + Belgium U17 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.83

Belgium U17 attack 1.90 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 scores more
42%
level
22%
Belgium U17 scores more
36%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 vs Belgium U17

Belgium U17 beat Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 6-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on March 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Etno Selo Stanisići in Stanisići.