Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 3–1 Belarus U17

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Belarus U17

K. Alajbegović 89', 59' (pen)

I. Kraljević 52'

S. Kazmerchuk 7'

3/26/2024

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 5Stadion Etno Selo Stanisići

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1752%

×Draw20%

Belarus U1728%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17Expected goals in this matchBelarus U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.62

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17

2.25

Belarus U17

1.62

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

2.56

creates per match

1.80

1.44

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17

2.56

Belarus U17

1.80

allows per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17

1.44

Belarus U17

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17+0.00on par

Belarus U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 ↓

Belarus U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 or draw

72%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 or Belarus U17

80%

Draw or Belarus U17

48%

Winning margin

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 wins by 2+

31%

Belarus U17 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 1+ goals

89%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 2+ goals

65%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 3+ goals

39%

Belarus U17 1+ goals

80%

Belarus U17 2+ goals

48%

Belarus U17 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 (draw refunded)

65%

Belarus U17 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Belarus U17 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 attack 2.56 + Belarus U17 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.25

Belarus U17 attack 1.80 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 scores more

52%

level

20%

Belarus U17 scores more

28%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

S. Kazmerchuk

36'

P. Apiatsionak

42'

A. Avdic

46'

A. Derzhinskiy← V. Pulkach

46'

S. Zhivushko← Y. Molchan

52'

I. Kraljević

58'

D. Volski

59'

K. AlajbegovićPenalty

60'

P. Dukanovic

65'

A. Arapovic

66'

B. Džanović← S. Ristić

68'

B. Gusev← D. Volskiy

70'

A. Ćorić← A. Arapović

83'

G. Sereda← G. Mishin

83'

I. Gubarevich← T. Tkachev

87'

M. Bakhno

89'

K. Alajbegović

90+2'

S. Simic

90'

A. Fočo← M. Kolić

90'

S. Simić← I. Kraljević

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Belarus

1

Matysyuk

2

Apetenok

22

⚽

Kazmerchu

3

Bakhno

17

Galyata

7

▼

Tkachev

13

▼

Mishin

5

▼

Molchan

10

Ovsyannik

11

▼

Volskiy

23

▼

12

5

3

2

⚽

▼

16

8

19

17

▼

Kolić

6

▼

Ristić

10

⚽2

Alajbegov

20

▼

Arapović

Manager: A. Raščić

66'▲B. Džanović←▼S. Ristić

70'▲A. Ćorić←▼A. Arapović

90'▲A. Fočo←▼M. Kolić

90'▲S. Simić←▼I. Kraljević

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 substitutes

18Džanović11Ćorić14Fočo13Simić15Šovšić4Grebović1Jurkas9Tubić

Manager: D. Korotkevich

46'▲A. Derzhinskiy←▼V. Pulkach

46'▲S. Zhivushko←▼Y. Molchan

68'▲B. Gusev←▼D. Volskiy

83'▲G. Sereda←▼G. Mishin

83'▲I. Gubarevich←▼T. Tkachev

Belarus U17 substitutes

19Derzhinskiy14Zhivushko20Gusev6Sereda9Gubarevich4Stanul16Kotov8Bezrukov