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Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Karlsruher SC — DFB Pokal 2018

Borussia Mönchengladbach
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
H. Tabakovic 89'
N. Elvedi 51'
S. Machino 3'
F. Schleusener 59'
10/28/2025DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 2nd RoundBorussia-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Borussia Mönchengladbach21%
×Draw19%
Karlsruher SC60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.39
Karlsruher SC
2.45

Karlsruher SC creates 76% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Borussia Mönchengladbach
2.00
Karlsruher SC
3.22

allows per match

Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.67
Karlsruher SC
0.78

finishing

Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.00on par
Karlsruher SC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Mönchengladbach ↓

Karlsruher SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw
40%
Borussia Mönchengladbach or Karlsruher SC
81%
Draw or Karlsruher SC
79%

Winning margin

Borussia Mönchengladbach wins by 2+
9%
Karlsruher SC wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Borussia Mönchengladbach 1+ goals
75%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 2+ goals
40%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3+ goals
16%
Karlsruher SC 1+ goals
91%
Karlsruher SC 2+ goals
70%
Karlsruher SC 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Borussia Mönchengladbach (draw refunded)
26%
Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Mönchengladbach at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Karlsruher SC away — creates 3.22, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 2.00 + Karlsruher SC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Karlsruher SC attack 3.22 + Borussia Mönchengladbach defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Borussia Mönchengladbach scores more
21%
level
19%
Karlsruher SC scores more
60%

Karlsruher SC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Karlsruher SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
H. TabakovicBorussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach · F
8.6

Match Events

3'
S. Machino↳ H. Tabakovic
26'
Nicolai Rapp
51'
N. Elvedi↳ K. Stoger
59'
F. Schleusener
73'
J. Castrop← S. Machino
73'
F. Neuhaus← K. Stoger
77'
M. Franke← M. Beifus
77'
S. Fukuda← A. Muller
77'
R. Simic← P. Forster
83'
R. Geller← L. Egloff
84'
Robert Geller
86'
Luca Netz
88'
E. Laghrissi← N. Rapp
89'
H. Tabakovic↳ F. Honorat
90'
M. Friedrich← F. Honorat
90'
J. Scally← P. Sander
90+2'
W. Mohya← H. Tabakovic

Possession

50%Borussia

Shots

26Borussia

Pass accuracy

51%Borussia

Statistics

BorussiaKarlsruher
Overview
50%Possession50%
26Total Shots12
10Corners4
10Fouls12
Shots
26Total Shots12
10On Target5
9Off Target4
7Blocked3
15Inside Box8
11Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
453Total Passes456
379Accurate Passes376
84%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Karlsruher SC

Borussia Mönchengladbach beat Karlsruher SC 3-1 in DFB Pokal on October 28, 2025.

Goals: S. Machino (3'), N. Elvedi (51'), F. Schleusener (59'), H. Tabakovic (89').

Borussia Mönchengladbach controlled possession (50%) and registered 26 shots to 12.

The match was played at Borussia-Park in Monchengladbach.