Borussia M'bach U19 2–2 Werder Bremen U19

Borussia M'bach U19

AET

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Werder Bremen U19

K. Sauck 36'

F. Fleck 24'

P. M'Bock 32'

Y. Ranon 10'

4/27/2025

U19 Bundesliga · Championship - 8th FinalsFohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1946%

×Draw21%

Werder Bremen U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia M'bach U19Expected goals in this matchWerder Bremen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.76

Borussia M'bach U19

2.11

Werder Bremen U19

1.76

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 71 away

2.30

creates per match

2.21

1.31

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19

2.30

Werder Bremen U19

2.21

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19

1.31

Werder Bremen U19

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

Werder Bremen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw

67%

Borussia M'bach U19 or Werder Bremen U19

79%

Draw or Werder Bremen U19

54%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

27%

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

88%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

62%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

35%

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals

83%

Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals

52%

Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Werder Bremen U19 away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.92 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.30 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.11

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.21 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

46%

level

21%

Werder Bremen U19 scores more

33%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

24'

32'

36'

46'

J. Uwakhonye← K. Sauck

56'

M. Schmetgens

57'

A. Krogmann← Y. Ranon

73'

M. Hathaway← J. Ossadnik

73'

S. Musah← P. Erevbenagie

75'

T. Koukkumäki← N. Vidic

82'

T. Catkaya← L. Wörsdörfer

106'

F. Hoxha← T. Top-Rasmussen

106'

F. Opoku Mensah← F. Fleck

106'

B. Coskun← S. Musah

108'

A. Halicioglu← L. Höcker

108'

J. Warnken← P. Čović

115'

E. Krasniqi← M. Nguefack

120+5'

Missed penalty

Borussia

Werder

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Sauck

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Kirch

46'▲J. Uwakhonye←▼K. Sauck

75'▲T. Koukkumäki←▼N. Vidic

82'▲T. Catkaya←▼L. Wörsdörfer

106'▲F. Hoxha←▼T. Top-Rasmussen

106'▲F. Opoku Mensah←▼F. Fleck

115'▲E. Krasniqi←▼M. Nguefack

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

UwakhonyeKoukkumäkiCatkayaHoxhaMensahKrasniqiGutaj

Manager: C. Makiadi

57'▲A. Krogmann←▼Y. Ranon

73'▲M. Hathaway←▼J. Ossadnik

73'▲S. Musah←▼P. Erevbenagie

106'▲B. Coskun←▼S. Musah

108'▲A. Halicioglu←▼L. Höcker

108'▲J. Warnken←▼P. Čović

Werder Bremen U19 substitutes

KrogmannHathawayMusahCoskunHaliciogluWarnkenStarcke