Borussia M'bach U19 9–0 Wehen Wiesbaden U19

Borussia M'bach U19

FT

9 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Wehen Wiesbaden U19

E. Vali Fard 81'

T. Koukkumäki 79'

N. Swider 62', 56'

W. Boteli 50'

F. Fleck 38', 26', 7'

K. Sauck 3'

8/18/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 4Fohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1953%

×Draw20%

Wehen Wiesbaden U1927%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia M'bach U19Expected goals in this matchWehen Wiesbaden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.61

Borussia M'bach U19

2.29

Wehen Wiesbaden U19

1.61

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 28 away

2.34

creates per match

1.93

1.30

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19

2.34

Wehen Wiesbaden U19

1.93

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19

1.30

Wehen Wiesbaden U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Wehen Wiesbaden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw

73%

Borussia M'bach U19 or Wehen Wiesbaden U19

80%

Draw or Wehen Wiesbaden U19

47%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

32%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

90%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

66%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

40%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 1+ goals

80%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 2+ goals

48%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.34 + Wehen Wiesbaden U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 attack 1.93 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

53%

level

20%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 scores more

27%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

7'

26'

38'

41'

I. Yoldas Diaz← N. Doğanay

46'

E. Kocabey← G. Burger

46'

S. Alkhleif← T. Akoto

50'

W. Boteli

56'

N. Swider

58'

B. Altay← L. Rastiello

58'

K. Hasanovic← J. Becker

62'

C. Beyersdorf← D. Berko

62'

F. Opoku Mensah← T. Top-Rasmussen

62'

L. Wörsdörfer← J. Uwakhonye

62'

T. Koukkumäki← F. Fleck

62'

74'

74'

79'

81'

90+1'

Borussia

Wehen

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽2

⚽3

▼

Fleck

▼

Berko

Michaelis

⚽

▼

Boteli

▼

Uwakhonye

Manager: O. Kirch

62'▲C. Beyersdorf←▼D. Berko

62'▲F. Opoku Mensah←▼T. Top-Rasmussen

62'▲L. Wörsdörfer←▼J. Uwakhonye

62'▲T. Koukkumäki←▼F. Fleck

74'▲H. Onur←▼Y. Dasbach

74'▲S. Ketola←▼W. Boteli

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

BeyersdorfMensahWörsdörferKoukkumäkiOnurKetolaGutaj

Manager: C. Mollocher

41'▲I. Yoldas Diaz←▼N. Doğanay

46'▲E. Kocabey←▼G. Burger

46'▲S. Alkhleif←▼T. Akoto

58'▲B. Altay←▼L. Rastiello

58'▲K. Hasanovic←▼J. Becker

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 substitutes

DiazKocabeyAlkhleifAltayHasanovicFärber