Borussia M'bach U19 2–0 Viktoria Köln U19

Borussia M'bach U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Viktoria Köln U19

8/13/2023

U19 Bundesliga · West - 1Fohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1955%

×Draw21%

Viktoria Köln U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia M'bach U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.37

Borussia M'bach U19

2.15

Viktoria Köln U19

1.37

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 70 away

2.30

creates per match

1.43

1.31

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19

2.30

Viktoria Köln U19

1.43

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19

1.31

Viktoria Köln U19

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

Viktoria Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw

76%

Borussia M'bach U19 or Viktoria Köln U19

79%

Draw or Viktoria Köln U19

45%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

33%

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

88%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

63%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

36%

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

75%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

40%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Viktoria Köln U19 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.30 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.15

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.43 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

55%

level

21%

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

24%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff