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Borussia M'bach U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Borussia M'bach U19
Borussia M'bach U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
RW Oberhausen U19
RW Oberhausen U19
L. Wörsdörfer 41'
J. Uwakhonye 23'
E. Babayigit 32'
8/31/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 5Fohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1958%
×Draw20%
RW Oberhausen U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia M'bach U19
2.19
RW Oberhausen U19
1.25

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 49 away

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19
2.30
RW Oberhausen U19
1.20

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19
1.31
RW Oberhausen U19
2.08

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par
RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw
79%
Borussia M'bach U19 or RW Oberhausen U19
80%
Draw or RW Oberhausen U19
42%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+
36%
RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals
89%
Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals
64%
Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals
37%
RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals
71%
RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals
36%
RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)
73%
RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.30 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.19

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.20 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more
58%
level
20%
RW Oberhausen U19 scores more
21%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
J. Uwakhonye
32'
E. Babayigit
41'
L. Wörsdörfer
Borussia
RW
O. Kirch
Manager: O. Kirch
M. Terranova
Manager: M. Terranova

U19 Bundesliga: Borussia M'bach U19 2–1 RW Oberhausen U19

Borussia M'bach U19 beat RW Oberhausen U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 31, 2025.

Goals: J. Uwakhonye (23'), E. Babayigit (32'), L. Wörsdörfer (41').

The match was played at Fohlenplatz in Mönchengladbach.