Borussia M'bach U19 1–2 RB Leipzig U19

Borussia M'bach U19

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

RB Leipzig U19

C. Arnold 54'

R. Friedrich 86'

M. Ibrahimi 63'

11/7/2021

DFB Junioren Pokal · Round of 16Fohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1935%

×Draw20%

RB Leipzig U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia M'bach U19Expected goals in this matchRB Leipzig U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

2.25

Borussia M'bach U19

2.00

RB Leipzig U19

2.25

RB Leipzig U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.67

creates per match

2.83

1.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19

2.67

RB Leipzig U19

2.83

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19

1.67

RB Leipzig U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw

56%

Borussia M'bach U19 or RB Leipzig U19

80%

Draw or RB Leipzig U19

65%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

19%

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

86%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

59%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

32%

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

89%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

65%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

44%

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 2.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.67 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.83 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

35%

level

20%

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

44%

RB Leipzig U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

C. Arnold

63'

M. Ibrahimi

65'

R. Friedrich← O. Köhl

86'

R. Friedrich

87'

T. Reitz← M. Moustafa

88'

M. Scheibner← C. Dag

90'

D. Deumi-Nappi← A. Schreck

90+4'

M. Voigt← M. Ibrahimi

90'

P. Weber← K. Smorgol

90'

Y. Freischlad← D. Krasucki

Borussia

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Eickel

87'▲T. Reitz←▼M. Moustafa

88'▲M. Scheibner←▼C. Dag

90'▲D. Deumi-Nappi←▼A. Schreck

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

ReitzScheibnerDeumi-NappiArndtSchützWirthZenku

Manager: D. Meyer

65'▲R. Friedrich←▼O. Köhl

90+4'▲M. Voigt←▼M. Ibrahimi

90'▲P. Weber←▼K. Smorgol

90'▲Y. Freischlad←▼D. Krasucki

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

FriedrichVoigtWeberFreischladEutingerYeboahSiepler

Match Recap: Borussia M'bach U19 vs RB Leipzig U19

RB Leipzig U19 beat Borussia M'bach U19 2-1 in DFB Junioren Pokal on November 7, 2021.

Goals: C. Arnold (54'), M. Ibrahimi (63'), R. Friedrich (86').

The match was played at Fohlenplatz in Mönchengladbach.

Borussia M'bach U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Borussia M'bach U19 vs RB Leipzig U19