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Borussia M'bach U19 vs Osnabrück U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Borussia M'bach U19
Borussia M'bach U19
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Osnabrück U19
Osnabrück U19
S. Ketola 78'
Iaia Danfa 47', 19'
T. Koukkumäki 30', 28'
O. Fehring 64'
L. Kröger 53'
9/21/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 7Fohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1961%
×Draw19%
Osnabrück U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia M'bach U19
2.40
Osnabrück U19
1.30

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 73 away

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19
2.30
Osnabrück U19
1.29

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19
1.31
Osnabrück U19
2.51

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par
Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw
80%
Borussia M'bach U19 or Osnabrück U19
81%
Draw or Osnabrück U19
39%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+
40%
Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals
91%
Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals
69%
Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals
42%
Osnabrück U19 1+ goals
73%
Osnabrück U19 2+ goals
37%
Osnabrück U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)
76%
Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.30 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.40

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more
61%
level
19%
Osnabrück U19 scores more
20%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Iaia Danfa
28'
T. Koukkumäki
30'
T. Koukkumäki
47'
Iaia Danfa
53'
L. Kröger
64'
O. Fehring
78'
S. Ketola
Borussia
Osnabrück
O. Kirch
Manager: O. Kirch
T. Danneberg
Manager: T. Danneberg

Match Recap: Borussia M'bach U19 vs Osnabrück U19

Borussia M'bach U19 beat Osnabrück U19 5-2 in U19 Bundesliga on September 21, 2025.

Goals: Iaia Danfa (19', 47'), T. Koukkumäki (28', 30'), L. Kröger (53'), O. Fehring (64'), S. Ketola (78').

The match was played at Fohlenplatz in Mönchengladbach.