Borussia M'bach U19 2–0 MSV Duisburg U19

Borussia M'bach U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

MSV Duisburg U19

K. Asallari 60', 39'

10/23/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 6Fohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1954%

×Draw21%

MSV Duisburg U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia M'bach U19Expected goals in this matchMSV Duisburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.37

Borussia M'bach U19

2.10

MSV Duisburg U19

1.37

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 68 away

2.32

creates per match

1.40

1.34

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19

2.32

MSV Duisburg U19

1.40

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19

1.34

MSV Duisburg U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

MSV Duisburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw

75%

Borussia M'bach U19 or MSV Duisburg U19

79%

Draw or MSV Duisburg U19

46%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

32%

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

88%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

62%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

35%

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals

75%

MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals

40%

MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

68%

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

MSV Duisburg U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.88 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.32 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.10

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.40 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

54%

level

21%

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more

25%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

A. Schreck← M. Nack

39'

K. Asallari

46'

E. Boadi← J. Hettwer

58'

R. Naderi← A. Schreck

60'

K. Asallari

64'

H. Haidoura← A. Murati

64'

J. Aydogan← J. Forger

66'

L. Arndt← L. Barata

68'

S. Zenku← T. Reitz

84'

H. Salah← H. Anhari

Borussia

MSV

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: S. Eickel

26'▲A. Schreck←▼M. Nack

58'▲R. Naderi←▼A. Schreck

66'▲L. Arndt←▼L. Barata

68'▲S. Zenku←▼T. Reitz

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

SchreckNaderiArndtZenkuWerrmannGroßTurping

Manager: E. Vural

46'▲E. Boadi←▼J. Hettwer

64'▲H. Haidoura←▼A. Murati

64'▲J. Aydogan←▼J. Forger

84'▲H. Salah←▼H. Anhari

MSV Duisburg U19 substitutes

BoadiHaidouraAydoganSalahHüningMüllerBraune