Borussia M'bach U19 3–2 Kaiserslautern U19

Borussia M'bach U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Kaiserslautern U19

W. Boteli 52', 32'

F. Fleck 43'

M. Yüsün 72'

K. Ramadani 55'

11/23/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 12Fohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1955%

×Draw20%

Kaiserslautern U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia M'bach U19Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.48

Borussia M'bach U19

2.29

Kaiserslautern U19

1.48

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 68 away

2.32

creates per match

1.62

1.34

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19

2.32

Kaiserslautern U19

1.62

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19

1.34

Kaiserslautern U19

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw

75%

Borussia M'bach U19 or Kaiserslautern U19

80%

Draw or Kaiserslautern U19

45%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

34%

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

90%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

66%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

40%

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

77%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

43%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.32 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.29

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.62 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

55%

level

20%

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

25%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

W. Boteli

43'

F. Fleck

46'

D. Tuttobene← E. Müller

52'

W. Boteli

55'

K. Ramadani

60'

E. Krasniqi← M. Nguefack

60'

F. Hoxha← J. Uwakhonye

61'

M. Seegel← L. Tautenhahn

61'

P. Besch← O. Gibs

68'

N. Vidic← W. Boteli

68'

S. Ketola← F. Fleck

72'

M. Yüsün

74'

N. Tamakloe← M. Yüsün

78'

F. Opoku Mensah← Y. Michaelis

78'

W. Mohya← A. Muradyan

Borussia

Kaiserslautern

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Boteli

▼

Uwakhonye

▼

Muradyan

Manager: O. Kirch

60'▲E. Krasniqi←▼M. Nguefack

60'▲F. Hoxha←▼J. Uwakhonye

68'▲N. Vidic←▼W. Boteli

68'▲S. Ketola←▼F. Fleck

78'▲F. Opoku Mensah←▼Y. Michaelis

78'▲W. Mohya←▼A. Muradyan

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

KrasniqiHoxhaVidicKetolaMensahMohyaGutaj

Manager: E. Baffoun

46'▲D. Tuttobene←▼E. Müller

61'▲M. Seegel←▼L. Tautenhahn

61'▲P. Besch←▼O. Gibs

74'▲N. Tamakloe←▼M. Yüsün

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

TuttobeneSeegelBeschTamakloeDorukMensahTauer

U19 Bundesliga: Borussia M'bach U19 3–2 Kaiserslautern U19

Borussia M'bach U19 beat Kaiserslautern U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on November 23, 2024.

Goals: W. Boteli (32', 52'), F. Fleck (43'), K. Ramadani (55'), M. Yüsün (72').

The match was played at Fohlenplatz in Mönchengladbach.

Borussia M'bach U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Borussia M'bach U19 3–2 Kaiserslautern U19