Borussia M'bach U19 2–6 Hoffenheim U19

Borussia M'bach U19

FT

2 – 6

HT: 1 – 2

Hoffenheim U19

D. Arize 79'

K. Sauck 11'

Blessing Makanda 87', 2'

L. Krasniqi 74'

F. Micheler 57'

P. Hennrich 48'

M. Moerstedt 8'

5/15/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Championship - Semi-finalsFohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1939%

×Draw21%

Hoffenheim U1940%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia M'bach U19Expected goals in this matchHoffenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

2.05

Borussia M'bach U19

2.02

Hoffenheim U19

2.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 76 away

2.30

creates per match

2.79

1.31

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19

2.30

Hoffenheim U19

2.79

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19

1.31

Hoffenheim U19

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw

60%

Borussia M'bach U19 or Hoffenheim U19

79%

Draw or Hoffenheim U19

61%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

21%

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

87%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

60%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

33%

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

87%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

61%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.75 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.30 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.02

Hoffenheim U19 attack 2.79 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

39%

level

21%

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

40%

Hoffenheim U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

8'

11'

48'

57'

61'

D. Arize← J. Uwakhonye

63'

L. Krasniqi← T. Poller

71'

F. Hoxha← V. Zajaczkowski

74'

L. Krasniqi

79'

R. Wagner← P. Hennrich

79'

Y. Hör← L. Strobl

79'

D. Arize

87'

J. Wähling← D. Dağdeviren

87'

Z. Tairi← M. Moerstedt

87'

Blessing Makanda

90+4'

L. Laatsch← K. Sauck

Borussia

Hoffenheim

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: O. Kirch

61'▲D. Arize←▼J. Uwakhonye

71'▲F. Hoxha←▼V. Zajaczkowski

90+4'▲L. Laatsch←▼K. Sauck

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

ArizeHoxhaLaatschKhadraouiDimmerGergorecBloch

Manager: T. Nubbemeyer

63'▲L. Krasniqi←▼T. Poller

79'▲R. Wagner←▼P. Hennrich

79'▲Y. Hör←▼L. Strobl

87'▲J. Wähling←▼D. Dağdeviren

87'▲Z. Tairi←▼M. Moerstedt

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

KrasniqiWagnerHörWählingTairiErdalPhilipp

Match Recap: Borussia M'bach U19 vs Hoffenheim U19

Hoffenheim U19 beat Borussia M'bach U19 6-2 in U19 Bundesliga on May 15, 2024.

Goals: Blessing Makanda (2', 87'), M. Moerstedt (8'), K. Sauck (11'), P. Hennrich (48'), F. Micheler (57'), L. Krasniqi (74'), D. Arize (79').

The match was played at Fohlenplatz in Mönchengladbach.

Borussia M'bach U19 vs Hoffenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Borussia M'bach U19 vs Hoffenheim U19