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Borussia M'bach U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Borussia M'bach U19
Borussia M'bach U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
8/23/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 3Fohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1946%
×Draw22%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia M'bach U19
1.88
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.52

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 68 away

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19
2.30
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.74

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19
1.31
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.46

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw
69%
Borussia M'bach U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
78%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
54%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+
25%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals
85%
Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals
56%
Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals
29%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals
78%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals
45%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)
59%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.30 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.88

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.74 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more
46%
level
22%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more
31%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Borussia M'bach U19 1–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 beat Borussia M'bach U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Fohlenplatz in Mönchengladbach.