Borussia M'bach U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Borussia M'bach U1937%
Borussia Dortmund U1942%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 6 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over78
- Under22
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes77
- No23
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Borussia M'bach U19 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches
Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.67 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.02
Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.63 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.15
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Borussia Dortmund U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Borussia M'bach U19 host Borussia Dortmund U19 on Sunday, 13 December 2020 at 10:00. The match is part of the DFB Junioren Pokal 2020/2021 season.
Borussia M'bach U19 face Borussia Dortmund U19 (DFB Junioren Pokal)
DFB Junioren Pokal returns with Borussia M'bach U19 hosting Borussia Dortmund U19. Match starts December 13, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Borussia M'bach U19 host Borussia Dortmund U19 at Fohlenplatz.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.