Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Borussia M'bach U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020

Borussia M'bach U19
Borussia M'bach U19advanced
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Arminia Bielefeld U19
Arminia Bielefeld U19
11/9/2025DFB Junioren PokalDFB Junioren Pokal · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1946%
×Draw20%
Arminia Bielefeld U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia M'bach U19
2.33
Arminia Bielefeld U19
2.00

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19
2.67
Arminia Bielefeld U19
2.33

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19
1.67
Arminia Bielefeld U19
2.00

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par
Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw
66%
Borussia M'bach U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19
80%
Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19
54%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+
27%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals
90%
Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals
67%
Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals
41%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals
86%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals
59%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.67 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 2.33 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more
46%
level
20%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more
34%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borussia M'bach U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19

Borussia M'bach U19 beat Arminia Bielefeld U19 6-0 in DFB Junioren Pokal on November 9, 2025.