Borussia Dortmund 2–1 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Borussia Dortmund

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Slavia Praha

J. Brandt 61'

J. Sancho 10'

T. Souček 43'

12/10/2019

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 6Signal-Iduna-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Borussia Dortmund68%

×Draw21%

Slavia Praha11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia DortmundExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.60

Borussia Dortmund

1.90

Slavia Praha

0.60

Borussia Dortmund creates 217% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 11 away

1.88

creates per match

0.45

0.76

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund

1.88

Slavia Praha

0.45

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund

0.76

Slavia Praha

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund or draw

89%

Borussia Dortmund or Slavia Praha

79%

Draw or Slavia Praha

32%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+

42%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals

85%

Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals

56%

Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals

29%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

45%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

12%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)

86%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund attack 1.88 + Slavia Praha defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.90

Slavia Praha attack 0.45 + Borussia Dortmund defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Borussia Dortmund scores more

68%

level

21%

Slavia Praha scores more

11%

Borussia Dortmund at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

T. Souček

Slavia Praha · M

8.5

Match Events

10'

38'

42'

43'

49'

61'

65'

Abdulla Yusuf Helal← M. Škoda

66'

Julian Weigl

72'

Ibrahim Traore← L. Masopust

77'

Julian Weigl

77'

Julian Weigl

82'

Vladimír Coufal

83'

Ł. Piszczek← T. Hazard

83'

L. Balerdi← A. Hakimi

83'

J. Hušbauer← L. Takács

87'

M. Dahoud← J. Sancho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BorussiaSlavia

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots18

2Corners7

11Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots18

8On Target8

4Off Target7

4Blocked3

11Inside Box11

5Outside Box7

Passing

48%Possession52%

488Total Passes496

392Accurate Passes398

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

7Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1