Borussia Dortmund 5–1 FC Augsburg: Result & Stats

Borussia Dortmund

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

FC Augsburg

F. Nmecha 64'

M. Reus 34'

Y. Moukoko 29', 4'

D. Malen 20'

R. Vargas 32'

5/4/2024

Bundesliga · Round 32BVB Stadion Dortmund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Borussia Dortmund59%

×Draw21%

FC Augsburg21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia DortmundExpected goals in this matchFC Augsburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.21

Borussia Dortmund

2.15

FC Augsburg

1.21

Borussia Dortmund creates 78% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

2.19

creates per match

1.28

1.15

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund

2.19

FC Augsburg

1.28

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund

1.15

FC Augsburg

2.11

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Borussia Dortmund+0.08on par

FC Augsburg-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund ↓

FC Augsburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund or draw

79%

Borussia Dortmund or FC Augsburg

79%

Draw or FC Augsburg

41%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+

36%

FC Augsburg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals

88%

Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals

63%

Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals

36%

FC Augsburg 1+ goals

70%

FC Augsburg 2+ goals

34%

FC Augsburg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)

74%

FC Augsburg (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.15 · 22 matches

FC Augsburg away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.11 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund attack 2.19 + FC Augsburg defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.15

FC Augsburg attack 1.28 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Borussia Dortmund scores more

59%

level

21%

FC Augsburg scores more

21%

Borussia Dortmund at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Reus

Borussia Dortmund · M

8.6

Match Events

4'

Y. Moukoko

10'

Maximilian Bauer

20'

D. Malen↳ J. Bynoe-Gittens

29'

32'

34'

63'

63'

63'

N. Schlotterbeck← Mateu Morey

64'

F. Nmecha↳ M. Reus

66'

J. Brandt← M. Reus

67'

N. Dorsch← R. Vargas

67'

P. Pfeiffer← M. Bauer

67'

D. Beljo← P. Tietz

73'

M. Sabitzer← F. Nmecha

73'

M. Kömür← A. Maier

77'

A. Engels← T. Breithaupt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BorussiaFC

Overview

61%Possession39%

21Total Shots22

3.62Expected Goals (xG)2.64

6Corners9

4Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots22

10On Target4

7Off Target10

4Blocked8

14Inside Box19

7Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

576Total Passes359

507Accurate Passes301

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

4Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0