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Borussia Dortmund vs AZ Alkmaar — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
FT
2 – 2
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
1/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 1Banús Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Borussia Dortmund51%
×Draw21%
AZ Alkmaar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Dortmund
2.15
AZ Alkmaar
1.56

Borussia Dortmund creates 38% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund
3.29
AZ Alkmaar
1.25

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund
1.86
AZ Alkmaar
1.00

finishing

Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par
AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund ↓

AZ Alkmaar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund or draw
72%
Borussia Dortmund or AZ Alkmaar
79%
Draw or AZ Alkmaar
49%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+
30%
AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals
88%
Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
63%
Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals
36%
AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
79%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
46%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)
64%
AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund at home — creates 3.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund attack 3.29 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.25 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Borussia Dortmund scores more
51%
level
21%
AZ Alkmaar scores more
28%

Borussia Dortmund at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Borussia Dortmund 2–2 AZ Alkmaar

Borussia Dortmund and AZ Alkmaar drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Banús Football Center in Marbella.