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Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Borussia Dortmund U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wehen Wiesbaden U19
Wehen Wiesbaden U19
N. König 82', 55'
S. Inácio 75', 12'
D. Memovic 49'
9/13/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 6Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1962%
×Draw18%
Wehen Wiesbaden U1920%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Dortmund U19
2.61
Wehen Wiesbaden U19
1.43

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 28 away

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
2.97
Wehen Wiesbaden U19
1.93

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
0.93
Wehen Wiesbaden U19
2.25

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par
Wehen Wiesbaden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw
80%
Borussia Dortmund U19 or Wehen Wiesbaden U19
82%
Draw or Wehen Wiesbaden U19
38%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+
41%
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals
93%
Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals
73%
Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals
47%
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 1+ goals
76%
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 2+ goals
42%
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)
76%
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 2.97, concedes 0.93 · 72 matches

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.97 + Wehen Wiesbaden U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.61

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 attack 1.93 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more
62%
level
18%
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 scores more
20%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
S. Inácio
49'
D. Memovic
55'
N. König
75'
S. Inácio
82'
N. König
Borussia
Wehen
Felix Hirschnagl
Manager: Felix Hirschnagl
A. Alexander
Manager: A. Alexander

U19 Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund U19 4–1 Wehen Wiesbaden U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat Wehen Wiesbaden U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 13, 2025.

Goals: S. Inácio (12', 75'), D. Memovic (49'), N. König (55', 82').

The match was played at Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei in Dortmund.