Borussia Dortmund U19 4–0 Viktoria Köln U19

Borussia Dortmund U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Viktoria Köln U19

N. Šimić 78'

J. Rijkhoff 56', 9' (pen)

H. Blank 15'

10/29/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 7Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1965%

×Draw18%

Viktoria Köln U1917%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia Dortmund U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.20

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.48

Viktoria Köln U19

1.20

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 107% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 67 away

2.97

creates per match

1.46

0.93

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.97

Viktoria Köln U19

1.46

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

0.93

Viktoria Köln U19

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Viktoria Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw

83%

Borussia Dortmund U19 or Viktoria Köln U19

82%

Draw or Viktoria Köln U19

35%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

43%

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

92%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

70%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

44%

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

70%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

34%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 2.97, concedes 0.93 · 72 matches

Viktoria Köln U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.99 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.97 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.48

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.46 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

65%

level

18%

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

17%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

J. RijkhoffPenalty

15'

H. Blank

46'

A. Mengot← I. Nwachukwu

46'

V. Onofrietti← M. Ludwig

56'

J. Rijkhoff

59'

K. Taskale← L. de Meester

59'

O. Ichue← J. Udelhoven

59'

R. Aigbekaen← K. Örgün

67'

70'

75'

75'

78'

81'

B. Quayson← J. Rijkhoff

Borussia

Viktoria

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Rijkhoff

Manager: M. Tullberg

46'▲A. Mengot←▼I. Nwachukwu

46'▲V. Onofrietti←▼M. Ludwig

67'▲N. Šimić←▼S. Bamba

75'▲W. Rashidi←▼F. Cissé

81'▲B. Quayson←▼J. Rijkhoff

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

MengotOnofriettiŠimićRashidiQuaysonZachariasBrunner

Manager: M. Wilhelm

59'▲K. Taskale←▼L. de Meester

59'▲O. Ichue←▼J. Udelhoven

59'▲R. Aigbekaen←▼K. Örgün

70'▲E. Lang←▼S. Giambra

75'▲R. Ajdari←▼R. Masry

Viktoria Köln U19 substitutes

TaskaleIchueAigbekaenLangAjdariDennerleinKubek