Borussia Dortmund U19 3–0 Preußen Münster U19

Borussia Dortmund U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Preußen Münster U19

J. Rijkhoff 59', 53' (pen)

P. Brunner 33'

11/13/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 9Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1963%

×Draw18%

Preußen Münster U1919%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia Dortmund U19Expected goals in this matchPreußen Münster U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.29

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.47

Preußen Münster U19

1.29

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 60 away

2.97

creates per match

1.65

0.93

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.97

Preußen Münster U19

1.65

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

0.93

Preußen Münster U19

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw

81%

Borussia Dortmund U19 or Preußen Münster U19

82%

Draw or Preußen Münster U19

37%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

41%

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

91%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

70%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

44%

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

72%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

37%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 2.97, concedes 0.93 · 72 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.97 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.47

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.65 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

63%

level

18%

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

19%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

N. Šimić← I. Nwachukwu

33'

P. Brunner

53'

J. RijkhoffPenalty

59'

J. Rijkhoff

62'

A. Papenfort← T. Hausotter

62'

B. Fallbrock← L. Öztürk

62'

D. Tchadjobo← P. Pinto

71'

M. Zacharias← M. Kirsch

71'

R. Lubach← P. Brunner

71'

M. Bena← S. Sarrafyar

79'

M. Pehlivan← D. Krevsun

84'

A. Mengot← M. Ludwig

84'

J. Korzynietz← S. Bamba

Borussia

Preußen

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

Brunner

Manager: M. Tullberg

25'▲N. Šimić←▼I. Nwachukwu

71'▲M. Zacharias←▼M. Kirsch

71'▲R. Lubach←▼P. Brunner

84'▲A. Mengot←▼M. Ludwig

84'▲J. Korzynietz←▼S. Bamba

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

ŠimićZachariasLubachMengotKorzynietzWätjenOnofrietti

Manager: T. Harink

62'▲A. Papenfort←▼T. Hausotter

62'▲B. Fallbrock←▼L. Öztürk

62'▲D. Tchadjobo←▼P. Pinto

71'▲M. Bena←▼S. Sarrafyar

79'▲M. Pehlivan←▼D. Krevsun

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

PapenfortFallbrockTchadjoboBenaPehlivanBeckerAlter

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Preußen Münster U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat Preußen Münster U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 13, 2022.

Goals: P. Brunner (33'), J. Rijkhoff (53' pen, 59').

The match was played at Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei in Dortmund.

Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Preußen Münster U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Preußen Münster U19