Borussia Dortmund U19 2–1 Bonner SC U19

Borussia Dortmund U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bonner SC U19

S. Bamba 63'

P. Brunner 40'

O. Lichter 13'

10/1/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 5Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1980%

×Draw12%

Bonner SC U198%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia Dortmund U19Expected goals in this matchBonner SC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

0.86

Borussia Dortmund U19

3.04

Bonner SC U19

0.86

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 253% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 10 away

2.97

creates per match

0.80

0.93

allows per match

3.10

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.97

Bonner SC U19

0.80

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

0.93

Bonner SC U19

3.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Bonner SC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Bonner SC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw

92%

Borussia Dortmund U19 or Bonner SC U19

88%

Draw or Bonner SC U19

20%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

61%

Bonner SC U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

95%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

80%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

57%

Bonner SC U19 1+ goals

58%

Bonner SC U19 2+ goals

21%

Bonner SC U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

91%

Bonner SC U19 (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 2.97, concedes 0.93 · 72 matches

Bonner SC U19 away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.97 + Bonner SC U19 defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 3.04

Bonner SC U19 attack 0.80 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

80%

level

12%

Bonner SC U19 scores more

8%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

35'

35'

40'

46'

M. Gültekin← M. Ojesanmi

63'

64'

88'

88'

90+8'

V. Onofrietti← P. Brunner

90+10'

M. Bluhm← O. Lichter

90+10'

S. Krämer← B. Boboy

90+12'

L. Qorrolli← N. Tomson

Borussia

Bonner

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Brunner

Manager: M. Tullberg

35'▲A. Mengot←▼N. Šimić

35'▲R. Lubach←▼M. Ludwig

64'▲H. Blank←▼P. Aning

90+8'▲V. Onofrietti←▼P. Brunner

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

MengotLubachBlankOnofriettiQuaysonRashidiAabro

Manager: M. Ndjeng

46'▲M. Gültekin←▼M. Ojesanmi

90+10'▲M. Bluhm←▼O. Lichter

90+10'▲S. Krämer←▼B. Boboy

90+12'▲L. Qorrolli←▼N. Tomson

Bonner SC U19 substitutes

GültekinBluhmKrämerQorrolliKalayciOsaweReuschenbach

U19 Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund U19 2–1 Bonner SC U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat Bonner SC U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 1, 2022.

Goals: O. Lichter (13'), P. Brunner (40'), S. Bamba (63').

The match was played at Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei in Dortmund.

Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Bonner SC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund U19 2–1 Bonner SC U19