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Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Bochum U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020

Borussia Dortmund U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bochum U19
Bochum U19advanced
E. Kovacevic 44'
G. Schjott 4'
11/9/2025DFB Junioren PokalDFB Junioren Pokal · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1933%
×Draw27%
Bochum U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Dortmund U19
1.17
Bochum U19
1.33

Bochum U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
1.00
Bochum U19
1.33

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
1.33
Bochum U19
1.33

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par
Bochum U19+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Bochum U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw
60%
Borussia Dortmund U19 or Bochum U19
73%
Draw or Bochum U19
67%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+
13%
Bochum U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals
69%
Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals
33%
Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals
11%
Bochum U19 1+ goals
74%
Bochum U19 2+ goals
38%
Bochum U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)
45%
Bochum U19 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Bochum U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 1.00 + Bochum U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bochum U19 attack 1.33 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more
33%
level
27%
Bochum U19 scores more
40%

Bochum U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
G. Schjott
44'
E. Kovacevic
Borussia
Bochum
Felix Hirschnagl
Manager: Felix Hirschnagl
D. Siebers
Manager: D. Siebers

DFB Junioren Pokal: Borussia Dortmund U19 0–2 Bochum U19

Bochum U19 beat Borussia Dortmund U19 2-0 in DFB Junioren Pokal on November 9, 2025.

Goals: G. Schjott (4'), E. Kovacevic (44').