Borussia Dortmund U19 6–2 Beşiktaş U19

Borussia Dortmund U19

FT

6 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Beşiktaş U19

A. Kamara 79', 39'

J. Bynoe-Gittens 63', 5'

J. Rijkhoff 46', 3'

E. İlkhan 55'

K. Yağcı 31'

12/7/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1958%

×Draw19%

Beşiktaş U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia Dortmund U19Expected goals in this matchBeşiktaş U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.60

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.58

Beşiktaş U19

1.60

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 3 away

1.84

creates per match

1.67

1.53

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.84

Beşiktaş U19

1.67

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.53

Beşiktaş U19

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Beşiktaş U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Beşiktaş U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw

77%

Borussia Dortmund U19 or Beşiktaş U19

81%

Draw or Beşiktaş U19

42%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

38%

Beşiktaş U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

92%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

72%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

47%

Beşiktaş U19 1+ goals

80%

Beşiktaş U19 2+ goals

47%

Beşiktaş U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Beşiktaş U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Beşiktaş U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 1.84 + Beşiktaş U19 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.58

Beşiktaş U19 attack 1.67 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

58%

level

19%

Beşiktaş U19 scores more

23%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

J. Rijkhoff↳ B. Fink

5'

J. Bynoe-Gittens↳ G. Gürpüz

16'

G. Baytekin

31'

K. Yağcı

39'

A. Kamara↳ B. Fink

46'

A. El-Zein← G. Gürpüz

46'

54'

55'

61'

63'

65'

A. Mengot← J. Bynoe-Gittens

69'

V. Walz← B. Fink

78'

79'

82'

82'

82'

S. Kılıçsoy← D. Tıknaz

Borussia

Beşiktaş

1

Baytekin

11

Demir

3

A

Terzi

13

Yıldız

5

▼

23

10

6

7

⚽

▼

İlkhan

8

▼

Tıknaz

9

⚽

▼

12

14

6

4

28

⚽2

▼

Kamara

3

Rothe

8

Lütke-Fri

10

A

▼

Gürpüz

7

⚽2

▼

Bynoe-Git

9

A

▼

Fink

25

⚽2

Rijkhoff

Manager: M. Tullberg

46'▲A. El-Zein←▼G. Gürpüz

65'▲A. Mengot←▼J. Bynoe-Gittens

69'▲V. Walz←▼B. Fink

82'▲M. Ludwig←▼A. Kamara

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

19El-Zein15Mengot21Walz27Ludwig23Dühring22Dudek5Husseck

Manager: Ö. Karaveli

61'▲A. Kömeç←▼O. Ağrap

78'▲H. Çiçek←▼E. İlkhan

82'▲Y. Oral←▼K. Yağcı

82'▲S. Kılıçsoy←▼D. Tıknaz

Beşiktaş U19 substitutes

15Kömeç22Çiçek19Oral18Kılıçsoy14Aydemir2Tutar30Demlikoğlu

UEFA Youth League: Borussia Dortmund U19 6–2 Beşiktaş U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat Beşiktaş U19 6-2 in UEFA Youth League on December 7, 2021.

Goals: J. Rijkhoff (3', 46'), J. Bynoe-Gittens (5', 63'), K. Yağcı (31'), A. Kamara (39', 79'), E. İlkhan (55').

The match was played at Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei in Dortmund.

Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Beşiktaş U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Borussia Dortmund U19 6–2 Beşiktaş U19