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Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020

Borussia Dortmund U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
8/31/2024DFB Junioren PokalDFB Junioren Pokal · 1st RoundFußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1928%
×Draw25%
Bayer Leverkusen U1947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Dortmund U19
1.13
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.54

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
1.00
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.75

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
1.33
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.25

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par
Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw
53%
Borussia Dortmund U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19
75%
Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19
72%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+
11%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals
68%
Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals
31%
Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals
11%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
79%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
45%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)
37%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 1.00 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 1.75 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more
28%
level
25%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
47%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 and Bayer Leverkusen U19 drew 1-1 in DFB Junioren Pokal on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei in Dortmund.