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Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Borussia Dortmund U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Arminia Bielefeld U19
Arminia Bielefeld U19
2/25/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 18Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1966%
×Draw18%
Arminia Bielefeld U1917%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Dortmund U19
2.51
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.19

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 111% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 61 away

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
3.00
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.44

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
0.95
Arminia Bielefeld U19
2.02

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par
Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw
83%
Borussia Dortmund U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19
82%
Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19
34%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+
44%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals
92%
Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals
71%
Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals
45%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals
70%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals
33%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)
80%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.95 · 73 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.02 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 3.00 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.51

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more
66%
level
18%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more
17%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat Arminia Bielefeld U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei in Dortmund.