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Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Alemannia Aachen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Borussia Dortmund U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alemannia Aachen U19
Alemannia Aachen U19
8/19/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 2Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1972%
×Draw15%
Alemannia Aachen U1912%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Dortmund U19
2.76
Alemannia Aachen U19
1.06

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 160% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 60 away

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
3.00
Alemannia Aachen U19
1.18

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
0.95
Alemannia Aachen U19
2.52

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par
Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Alemannia Aachen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw
88%
Borussia Dortmund U19 or Alemannia Aachen U19
85%
Draw or Alemannia Aachen U19
28%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+
51%
Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals
94%
Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals
76%
Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals
51%
Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals
65%
Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals
29%
Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)
86%
Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.95 · 73 matches

Alemannia Aachen U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.52 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 3.00 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.76

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.18 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more
72%
level
15%
Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more
12%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Alemannia Aachen U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat Alemannia Aachen U19 6-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei in Dortmund.