Boruna Tsareva livada 1–0 OFK Levski

Boruna Tsareva livada

FT

1 – 0

OFK Levski

10/27/2023

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 12Stadion Tsareva Livada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Boruna Tsareva livada49%

×Draw22%

OFK Levski30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boruna Tsareva livadaExpected goals in this matchOFK Levski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.55

Boruna Tsareva livada

2.02

OFK Levski

1.55

Boruna Tsareva livada creates 30% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 100 away

1.75

creates per match

0.90

2.21

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Boruna Tsareva livada

1.75

OFK Levski

0.90

allows per match

Boruna Tsareva livada

2.21

OFK Levski

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par

OFK Levski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boruna Tsareva livada ↓

OFK Levski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Boruna Tsareva livada or draw

70%

Boruna Tsareva livada or OFK Levski

78%

Draw or OFK Levski

51%

Winning margin

Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+

28%

OFK Levski wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals

87%

Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals

60%

Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals

33%

OFK Levski 1+ goals

79%

OFK Levski 2+ goals

46%

OFK Levski 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)

62%

OFK Levski (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boruna Tsareva livada at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.21 · 28 matches

OFK Levski away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 1.75 + OFK Levski defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.02

OFK Levski attack 0.90 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Boruna Tsareva livada scores more

49%

level

22%

OFK Levski scores more

30%

Boruna Tsareva livada at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Boruna Tsareva livada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff