Boruna Tsareva livada 0–0 Lokomotiv Mezdra

Boruna Tsareva livada

FT

0 – 0

Lokomotiv Mezdra

3/18/2023

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 19Stadion Tsareva Livada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Boruna Tsareva livada37%

×Draw22%

Lokomotiv Mezdra41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boruna Tsareva livadaExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Mezdra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.79

Boruna Tsareva livada

1.69

Lokomotiv Mezdra

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 106 away

1.75

creates per match

1.36

2.21

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Boruna Tsareva livada

1.75

Lokomotiv Mezdra

1.36

allows per match

Boruna Tsareva livada

2.21

Lokomotiv Mezdra

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boruna Tsareva livada ↓

Lokomotiv Mezdra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Boruna Tsareva livada or draw

59%

Boruna Tsareva livada or Lokomotiv Mezdra

78%

Draw or Lokomotiv Mezdra

63%

Winning margin

Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+

18%

Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals

82%

Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals

50%

Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals

24%

Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals

83%

Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals

53%

Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)

47%

Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boruna Tsareva livada at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.21 · 28 matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.62 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 1.75 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.69

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 1.36 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Boruna Tsareva livada scores more

37%

level

22%

Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more

41%

Lokomotiv Mezdra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lokomotiv Mezdra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff