Boruna Tsareva livada 0–2 Lokomotiv Dryanovo

Boruna Tsareva livada

FT

0 – 2

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

10/15/2022

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 11Stadion Tsareva Livada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Boruna Tsareva livada50%

×Draw21%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boruna Tsareva livadaExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Dryanovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.54

Boruna Tsareva livada

2.08

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

1.54

Boruna Tsareva livada creates 35% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 81 away

1.75

creates per match

0.88

2.21

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Boruna Tsareva livada

1.75

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

0.88

allows per match

Boruna Tsareva livada

2.21

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boruna Tsareva livada ↓

Lokomotiv Dryanovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Boruna Tsareva livada or draw

71%

Boruna Tsareva livada or Lokomotiv Dryanovo

79%

Draw or Lokomotiv Dryanovo

50%

Winning margin

Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+

29%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals

87%

Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals

61%

Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals

34%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals

79%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals

45%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)

64%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boruna Tsareva livada at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.21 · 28 matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 1.75 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.08

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 0.88 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Boruna Tsareva livada scores more

50%

level

21%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more

29%

Boruna Tsareva livada at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Boruna Tsareva livada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff