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Boruna Tsareva livada vs Dunav Lom — Third League - Northwest 2018

Boruna Tsareva livada
Boruna Tsareva livada
CANC
15:00
Dunav Lom
Dunav Lom
5/3/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 26Stadion Tsareva Livada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Boruna Tsareva livada27%
×Draw22%
Dunav Lom51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boruna Tsareva livada
1.38
Dunav Lom
1.96

Dunav Lom creates 42% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 7 away

creates per match

Boruna Tsareva livada
1.75
Dunav Lom
1.71

allows per match

Boruna Tsareva livada
2.21
Dunav Lom
1.00

finishing

Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par
Dunav Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boruna Tsareva livada ↓

Dunav Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Boruna Tsareva livada or draw
49%
Boruna Tsareva livada or Dunav Lom
78%
Draw or Dunav Lom
73%

Winning margin

Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+
12%
Dunav Lom wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals
75%
Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals
40%
Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals
16%
Dunav Lom 1+ goals
86%
Dunav Lom 2+ goals
58%
Dunav Lom 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)
35%
Dunav Lom (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boruna Tsareva livada at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.21 · 28 matches

Dunav Lom away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 1.75 + Dunav Lom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dunav Lom attack 1.71 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Boruna Tsareva livada scores more
27%
level
22%
Dunav Lom scores more
51%

Dunav Lom at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dunav Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Boruna Tsareva livada face Dunav Lom (Third League - Northwest)

Third League - Northwest returns with Boruna Tsareva livada hosting Dunav Lom. Match starts May 3, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Boruna Tsareva livada host Dunav Lom at Stadion Tsareva Livada.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.