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Bornova 1877 vs Aliağa FAŞ — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bornova 1877
Bornova 1877
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Aliağa FAŞ
Aliağa FAŞ
9/17/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundBornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bornova 187722%
×Draw18%
Aliağa FAŞ60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bornova 1877
1.58
Aliağa FAŞ
2.67

Aliağa FAŞ creates 69% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bornova 1877
1.33
Aliağa FAŞ
2.67

allows per match

Bornova 1877
2.67
Aliağa FAŞ
1.83

finishing

Bornova 1877+0.00on par
Aliağa FAŞ+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bornova 1877 ↓

Aliağa FAŞ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Bornova 1877 or draw
40%
Bornova 1877 or Aliağa FAŞ
82%
Draw or Aliağa FAŞ
78%

Winning margin

Bornova 1877 wins by 2+
10%
Aliağa FAŞ wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Bornova 1877 1+ goals
79%
Bornova 1877 2+ goals
47%
Bornova 1877 3+ goals
21%
Aliağa FAŞ 1+ goals
93%
Aliağa FAŞ 2+ goals
74%
Aliağa FAŞ 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Bornova 1877 (draw refunded)
27%
Aliağa FAŞ (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bornova 1877 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Aliağa FAŞ away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bornova 1877 attack 1.33 + Aliağa FAŞ defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Aliağa FAŞ attack 2.67 + Bornova 1877 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bornova 1877 scores more
22%
level
18%
Aliağa FAŞ scores more
60%

Aliağa FAŞ at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Aliağa FAŞ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Bornova 1877 0–6 Aliağa FAŞ

Aliağa FAŞ beat Bornova 1877 6-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 17, 2025.

The match was played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu in İzmir.