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Bornova 1877 vs Akhisarspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bornova 1877
Bornova 1877
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Akhisarspor
Akhisarspor
9/26/2023Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundBornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bornova 187724%
×Draw21%
Akhisarspor54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bornova 1877
1.33
Akhisarspor
2.08

Akhisarspor creates 56% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bornova 1877
1.33
Akhisarspor
1.50

allows per match

Bornova 1877
2.67
Akhisarspor
1.33

finishing

Bornova 1877+0.00on par
Akhisarspor+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bornova 1877 ↓

Akhisarspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bornova 1877 or draw
46%
Bornova 1877 or Akhisarspor
79%
Draw or Akhisarspor
76%

Winning margin

Bornova 1877 wins by 2+
10%
Akhisarspor wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Bornova 1877 1+ goals
74%
Bornova 1877 2+ goals
38%
Bornova 1877 3+ goals
15%
Akhisarspor 1+ goals
87%
Akhisarspor 2+ goals
61%
Akhisarspor 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Bornova 1877 (draw refunded)
31%
Akhisarspor (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bornova 1877 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Akhisarspor away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bornova 1877 attack 1.33 + Akhisarspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Akhisarspor attack 1.50 + Bornova 1877 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bornova 1877 scores more
24%
level
21%
Akhisarspor scores more
54%

Akhisarspor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Akhisarspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bornova 1877 vs Akhisarspor

Bornova 1877 beat Akhisarspor 4-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 26, 2023.

The match was played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu in İzmir.