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Bornova 1877 vs Afjet Afyonspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bornova 1877
Bornova 1877
AWD
3 – 0
Afjet Afyonspor
Afjet Afyonspor
9/3/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundBornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bornova 187753%
×Draw19%
Afjet Afyonspor28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bornova 1877
2.54
Afjet Afyonspor
1.83

Bornova 1877 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bornova 1877
1.33
Afjet Afyonspor
1.00

allows per match

Bornova 1877
2.67
Afjet Afyonspor
3.75

finishing

Bornova 1877+0.00on par
Afjet Afyonspor+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bornova 1877 ↓

Afjet Afyonspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Bornova 1877 or draw
72%
Bornova 1877 or Afjet Afyonspor
81%
Draw or Afjet Afyonspor
47%

Winning margin

Bornova 1877 wins by 2+
33%
Afjet Afyonspor wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bornova 1877 1+ goals
92%
Bornova 1877 2+ goals
72%
Bornova 1877 3+ goals
46%
Afjet Afyonspor 1+ goals
84%
Afjet Afyonspor 2+ goals
54%
Afjet Afyonspor 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Bornova 1877 (draw refunded)
66%
Afjet Afyonspor (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bornova 1877 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Afjet Afyonspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bornova 1877 attack 1.33 + Afjet Afyonspor defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.54

Afjet Afyonspor attack 1.00 + Bornova 1877 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bornova 1877 scores more
53%
level
19%
Afjet Afyonspor scores more
28%

Bornova 1877 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bornova 1877 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bornova 1877 face Afjet Afyonspor (Türkiye Kupası)

Türkiye Kupası returns with Bornova 1877 hosting Afjet Afyonspor. Match starts September 3, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bornova 1877 host Afjet Afyonspor at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.