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Borjomi vs Gori — Liga 3 2024

Borjomi
Borjomi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gori
Gori
8/29/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Borjomi26%
×Draw26%
Gori49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borjomi
1.04
Gori
1.53

Gori creates 47% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Borjomi
1.10
Gori
1.63

allows per match

Borjomi
1.43
Gori
0.97

finishing

Borjomi+0.00on par
Gori+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borjomi ↓

Gori →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Borjomi or draw
51%
Borjomi or Gori
74%
Draw or Gori
74%

Winning margin

Borjomi wins by 2+
10%
Gori wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Borjomi 1+ goals
65%
Borjomi 2+ goals
28%
Borjomi 3+ goals
9%
Gori 1+ goals
78%
Gori 2+ goals
45%
Gori 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Borjomi (draw refunded)
35%
Gori (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borjomi at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Gori away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borjomi attack 1.10 + Gori defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Gori attack 1.63 + Borjomi defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Borjomi scores more
26%
level
26%
Gori scores more
49%

Gori at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gori will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Borjomi 0 – 1 Gori

Gori beat Borjomi 1-0 in Liga 3 on August 29, 2024.