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Borja vs Giner Torrero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Borja
Borja
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Giner Torrero
Giner Torrero
12/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 16Estadio Manuel Meler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Borja69%
×Draw19%
Giner Torrero12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borja
2.19
Giner Torrero
0.80

Borja creates 174% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 16 away

creates per match

Borja
0.95
Giner Torrero
0.50

allows per match

Borja
1.10
Giner Torrero
3.44

finishing

Borja+0.00on par
Giner Torrero+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borja ↓

Giner Torrero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Borja or draw
88%
Borja or Giner Torrero
81%
Draw or Giner Torrero
31%

Winning margin

Borja wins by 2+
45%
Giner Torrero wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Borja 1+ goals
89%
Borja 2+ goals
64%
Borja 3+ goals
37%
Giner Torrero 1+ goals
55%
Giner Torrero 2+ goals
19%
Giner Torrero 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Borja (draw refunded)
85%
Giner Torrero (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borja at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Giner Torrero away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borja attack 0.95 + Giner Torrero defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.19

Giner Torrero attack 0.50 + Borja defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Borja scores more
69%
level
19%
Giner Torrero scores more
12%

Borja at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Borja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borja vs Giner Torrero

Borja beat Giner Torrero 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Meler in Borja.