Borja vs Belchite 97: Preview & Prediction

Borja

CANC

00:00

Belchite 97

3/29/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 34Estadio Manuel Meler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Borja37%

×Draw30%

Belchite 9733%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BorjaExpected goals in this matchBelchite 97

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.99

Borja

1.06

Belchite 97

0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 95 away

0.95

creates per match

0.87

1.10

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Borja

0.95

Belchite 97

0.87

allows per match

Borja

1.10

Belchite 97

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borja+0.00on par

Belchite 97+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borja ↓

Belchite 97 →

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Borja or draw

67%

Borja or Belchite 97

70%

Draw or Belchite 97

63%

Winning margin

Borja wins by 2+

14%

Belchite 97 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Borja 1+ goals

65%

Borja 2+ goals

29%

Borja 3+ goals

Belchite 97 1+ goals

63%

Belchite 97 2+ goals

26%

Belchite 97 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Borja (draw refunded)

53%

Belchite 97 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Borja at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Belchite 97 away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.18 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Borja attack 0.95 + Belchite 97 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Belchite 97 attack 0.87 + Borja defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Borja scores more

37%

level

30%

Belchite 97 scores more

33%

Borja at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Borja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Borja face Belchite 97 (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 returns with Borja hosting Belchite 97. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Borja host Belchite 97 at Estadio Manuel Meler.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Borja vs Belchite 97 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Borja face Belchite 97 (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)