Borja 1–1 Almudévar: Result & Stats

Borja

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Almudévar

2/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 17Estadio Manuel Meler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Borja40%

×Draw30%

Almudévar30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BorjaExpected goals in this matchAlmudévar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.94

Borja

1.12

Almudévar

0.94

Borja creates 19% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 96 away

0.95

creates per match

0.77

1.10

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Borja

0.95

Almudévar

0.77

allows per match

Borja

1.10

Almudévar

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borja+0.00on par

Almudévar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borja ↓

Almudévar →

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Borja or draw

70%

Borja or Almudévar

70%

Draw or Almudévar

60%

Winning margin

Borja wins by 2+

16%

Almudévar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Borja 1+ goals

67%

Borja 2+ goals

31%

Borja 3+ goals

10%

Almudévar 1+ goals

61%

Almudévar 2+ goals

24%

Almudévar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Borja (draw refunded)

57%

Almudévar (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Borja at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Almudévar away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.29 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Borja attack 0.95 + Almudévar defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.12

Almudévar attack 0.77 + Borja defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Borja scores more

40%

level

30%

Almudévar scores more

30%

Borja at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Borja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff