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Borislav 2009 vs Spartak Plovdiv — Third League - Southeast 2018

Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Spartak Plovdiv
Spartak Plovdiv
10/8/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 11Stadion Borislav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Borislav 200939%
×Draw25%
Spartak Plovdiv37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borislav 2009
1.50
Spartak Plovdiv
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 92 away

creates per match

Borislav 2009
1.59
Spartak Plovdiv
1.62

allows per match

Borislav 2009
1.29
Spartak Plovdiv
1.42

finishing

Borislav 2009+0.00on par
Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borislav 2009 ↓

Spartak Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Borislav 2009 or draw
63%
Borislav 2009 or Spartak Plovdiv
75%
Draw or Spartak Plovdiv
61%

Winning margin

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
19%
Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Borislav 2009 1+ goals
78%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
44%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
19%
Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals
77%
Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals
43%
Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
51%
Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borislav 2009 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Spartak Plovdiv away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borislav 2009 attack 1.59 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Spartak Plovdiv attack 1.62 + Borislav 2009 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Borislav 2009 scores more
39%
level
25%
Spartak Plovdiv scores more
37%

Borislav 2009 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Borislav 2009 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Borislav 2009 2–1 Spartak Plovdiv

Borislav 2009 beat Spartak Plovdiv 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Borislav in Parvomay.