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Borislav 2009 vs Levski Krumovgrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
FT
1 – 3
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
11/12/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 15Stadion Borislav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Borislav 200919%
×Draw22%
Levski Krumovgrad59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borislav 2009
1.00
Levski Krumovgrad
1.94

Levski Krumovgrad creates 94% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 17 away

creates per match

Borislav 2009
1.59
Levski Krumovgrad
2.59

allows per match

Borislav 2009
1.29
Levski Krumovgrad
0.41

finishing

Borislav 2009+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borislav 2009 ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Borislav 2009 or draw
41%
Borislav 2009 or Levski Krumovgrad
78%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
81%

Winning margin

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
7%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Borislav 2009 1+ goals
63%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
26%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
8%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
86%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
58%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
24%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borislav 2009 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 2.59, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borislav 2009 attack 1.59 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 1.00

Levski Krumovgrad attack 2.59 + Borislav 2009 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Borislav 2009 scores more
19%
level
22%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
59%

Levski Krumovgrad at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Borislav 2009 1–3 Levski Krumovgrad

Levski Krumovgrad beat Borislav 2009 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Borislav in Parvomay.