Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Borislav 2009 vs Beroe II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Beroe II
Beroe II
5/21/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 33Stadion Borislav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Borislav 200964%
×Draw20%
Beroe II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borislav 2009
2.19
Beroe II
1.02

Borislav 2009 creates 115% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 55 away

creates per match

Borislav 2009
1.59
Beroe II
0.76

allows per match

Borislav 2009
1.29
Beroe II
2.78

finishing

Borislav 2009+0.00on par
Beroe II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borislav 2009 ↓

Beroe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Borislav 2009 or draw
83%
Borislav 2009 or Beroe II
80%
Draw or Beroe II
36%

Winning margin

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
40%
Beroe II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Borislav 2009 1+ goals
89%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
64%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
37%
Beroe II 1+ goals
64%
Beroe II 2+ goals
27%
Beroe II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
79%
Beroe II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borislav 2009 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Beroe II away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borislav 2009 attack 1.59 + Beroe II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.19

Beroe II attack 0.76 + Borislav 2009 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Borislav 2009 scores more
64%
level
20%
Beroe II scores more
17%

Borislav 2009 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Borislav 2009 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Borislav 2009 1 – 1 Beroe II

Borislav 2009 and Beroe II drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Borislav in Parvomay.