Borislav 2009 0–1 Atletik Kuklen: Result & Stats

Borislav 2009

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atletik Kuklen

5/11/2022

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 31Stadion Borislav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Borislav 200955%

×Draw22%

Atletik Kuklen23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borislav 2009Expected goals in this matchAtletik Kuklen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.15

Borislav 2009

1.90

Atletik Kuklen

1.15

Borislav 2009 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 135 away

1.59

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Borislav 2009

1.59

Atletik Kuklen

1.00

allows per match

Borislav 2009

1.29

Atletik Kuklen

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borislav 2009 ↓

Atletik Kuklen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Borislav 2009 or draw

77%

Borislav 2009 or Atletik Kuklen

78%

Draw or Atletik Kuklen

45%

Winning margin

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+

31%

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Borislav 2009 1+ goals

85%

Borislav 2009 2+ goals

56%

Borislav 2009 3+ goals

29%

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals

68%

Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals

32%

Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)

71%

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borislav 2009 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Atletik Kuklen away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.21 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borislav 2009 attack 1.59 + Atletik Kuklen defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.90

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.00 + Borislav 2009 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Borislav 2009 scores more

55%

level

22%

Atletik Kuklen scores more

23%

Borislav 2009 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Borislav 2009 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff